Declining Disability Among the Elderly

Disability among the elderly has declined by one percent or more per year for the past several decades. Strong evidence relates these changes to improved medical technology and to behavioral changes. Changes in socioeconomic status, disease exposure, and use of supportive aids are likely important as well, although their magnitude is difficult to gauge. Should disability improvements continue, the projected increase in medical spending resulting from technological changes in health care would be moderated, but not eliminated. Disability change also may facilitate an increase in age of retirement.

Disability among older Americans is declining dramatically and at an accelerating pace. According to new analyses from the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS), the percentage of people age 65 and older with disabilities fell 1.6% per year from 1989 to 1994 and 2.6% annually from 1994 to 1999. The improvements in recent years also are noteworthy for a newly observed decline in disability among black Americans and a decrease of at least 200,000 in the number of people estimated to live in nursing homes.