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May 28, 2008
Accounting for Sources of Projected Growth in Federal Spending on
Medicare & Medicaid
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sought to evaluate the sources of
projected growth in federal spending for Medicare and Medicaid. Federal
spending is estimated to increase from 4 percent of gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2007 to 9 percent in 2032 and 19% in 2082. CBO noted
that the bulk of the increase is estimated to come from higher health
care costs and not just the greater numbers of beneficiaries that will
become eligible for the program within 25 years. Half of the projected
increases in federal Medicaid spending through 2032 is estimated to be
due to higher health care costs.
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