MDRC Working Papers on Research Methodology

Modeling the Performance of Welfare-to-Work Programs: The Effects of Program Management and Services, Economic Environment, and Client Characteristics

This paper poses a question of direct relevance for welfare administrators, program operators, and policy makers: What management practices, program strategies, and local conditions are key to running effective welfare-to-work programs. To address this question, the present analysis links detailed measures of program characteristics to valid and precise estimates of program impacts on short-term earnings. The data for the analysis are drawn from three random assignment studies conducted by MDRC of welfare-to-work programs in 59 sites across the U.S. (with a combined total of 69,399 welfare clients): California's Greater Avenues for Independence (GAIN) program, Florida's Project Independence (PI), and the National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies (NEWWS). The findings indicate that, other things being equal, program impacts on earnings during the first two years after random assignment are largest when programs strongly emphasize employment, provide personalized attention, and do not let staff caseloads become large. The paper also finds that short-term impacts on earnings are smaller where unemployment is high. Future papers will address corresponding questions about other labor market and welfare outcomes in the short and longer term.