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April 25, 2006
The Future of Long-Term Care
Services in the Commonwealth
of Pennsylvania: Final Report
This report analyzes the effects of growth in several scenarios to
determine the likelihood that future supply of long-term care beds
in Pennsylvania will meet future demands. The supply of long-term
care services is currently distributed unevenly across the state.
The supply of state nursing home beds declined between 1998 and
2002. Occupancy rates in 2003 rose to 90.7%. The supply is
constrained, because the Pennsylvania Department of Public Welfare
has enacted policies limiting Medicaid certification for additional
nursing home capacity. However, the number of people needing
long-term care is projected to increase by 17% by 2015.
Other forms of long-term care, such as home and community-based
services, personal care homes, assisted living facilities, and other
non-institutional care arrangements have grown as a result of public
policy preference and private market response to demand.

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