Home- & Community-Based Services Reform & Rebalancing Feasibility Analysis

First and foremost, the demographics of Pennsylvania's aged population are fairly unique.  These demographics are driving a high level of demand for publicly-financed long-term care services in the state.  It is commonly known that in the 2000 census, the percentage of Pennsylvania's population over the age of 65 was the second highest of all states, next to Florida.

What is less well known about the state's demographics is that the distribution of Pennsylvania's aged population is highly skewed towards older age cohorts.  The Commonwealth has the fourth-highest proportion of residents age 85 and over.

Between 2000 and 2004, the over age 85 cohort grew from approximately 278,000 to 313,000 people, an increase of almost 13%, while the state's overall population grew less than one percent over the same time period.  The Pennsylvania State Data Center estimates that by the year 2010, the over 85 age cohort will increase to 365,000 persons, a further increase of 18% from 2004.

In essence, Pennsylvania is currently experiencing the kinds of demographic changes that other states will not experience for another ten to 15 years.  Given these demographics, the pressures on Medicaid long-term care budgets will be significant over the coming decade.

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