Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation
January 2003

Welfare caseloads have always been dynamic, with families entering and leaving assistance programs each month. However, the unprecedented declines in welfare caseloads since the passage of the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) have led many to raise questions about what the rapid drop in caseloads means for states and families. National and local interest in this phenomenon has resulted in a number of studies of welfare leavers.

The study of Los Angeles County welfare leavers was undertaken by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Social Services as part of a grant from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation conducted the research and analysis and prepared this final report. The Los Angeles study was designed to inform local administrators and policy analysts about the circumstances of families leaving welfare before and after the onset of CalWORKs, California's welfare reform program. Specifically, the study was designed to address the following key questions:

• Who are the welfare leavers, and what are their background characteristics? How do pre-CalWORKs leavers compare with post-CalWORKs leavers?

• What are the earnings and employment experiences of pre- and post-CalWORKs welfare leavers?

• To what extent do pre- and post-CalWORKs leavers return to welfare? What public and other supports do leavers rely on after they stop receiving cash assistance?

• What is the post-exit material well-being of the CalWORKs leavers? What are their income sources, and what types of hardship do they experience? 

To address these questions, the research focused on the post-welfare experiences of two groups of welfare leavers: a group of leavers who exited welfare in quarter 3 of 1996 (or pre-CalWORKs leavers) and a group of leavers who exited welfare in quarter 3 of 1998 (or post-CalWORKs leavers). All AFDC/CalWORKs single-parent cases that closed in quarter 3 of 1996 and 1998 and did not reopen within two consecutive months of closing were included in this study.

Outcomes were examined for approximately 27,146 adult welfare leavers. Administrative data were used to track welfare leavers for a total of nine quarters, including four quarters pre- exit, the quarter of exit, and four quarters post-exit. Welfare records were used to obtain a small number of background characteristics and monthly AFDC/CalWORKs, Food Stamp, and Medi-Cal receipt. Wage files were obtained to examine pre- and post-exit employment rates and earnings.

To supplement the administrative records analysis, a random sample of 340 quarter 3 1998 CalWORKs leavers were selected for in-depth interviews. Sixty-two percent of the sample completed the survey. A mixed-mode survey, relying on telephone and in-person interviews, was conducted approximately 12 to 22 months after sample members exited welfare in 1998. The survey was used to gather data on topics that cannot be examined from administrative records alone.